New Insights About Ebola Virus Disease

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A new insight into how the Ebola virus spreads has been provided from a new modeling study published in Annals of Internal Medicine (“Effect of Ebola Progression on Transmission and Control in Liberia”.) according to Digital Journal.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-10/acop-2o2102714.php
Scientists developed a random transmission model to determine how disease progression and case fatality affect transmission and discovered that the risk for transmitting Ebola depends on the extent of the viral load in a patient and the number of people that the infected person comes into contact with.

To increase the strength of the model, the scientists looked at the rate of survival and death.

They discovered that survivors tend to achieve peak viral load approximately four days after symptoms develop and then viral load declines. Those who survived were predicted to have a 32 percent probability of infecting at least one other individual during their infection period.

With non-survivors it was found that the viral load was 100-fold higher compared with survivors and that the level of virus infection did not decline once it had peaked. In terms of disease transmission, non-survivors had a 67 percent probability of transmitting Ebola to at least one other person.

The scientists hope that further study of these patterns will help to predict how easily the disease can spread within a population and they emphasize the importance of isolating anyone who is suspected of carrying Ebola.

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