Business Economic Recession: Nigerian States That Will Be Badly Affected

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Nigeria is in recession. No other way to say it. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has confirmed that Nigeria is in its worst economic recession in 29 years.

According to the NBS gross domestic product (GDP) report for the second quarter of 2016, Nigeria’s economy contracted by 2.06 percent to record its lowest growth rate in three decades.

In the first quarter of 2016, the NBS said the economy shrank by 0.36 percent to hit its lowest point in 25 years.

Everyone is affected. Companies are folding up. Businesses are shutting down. Investors are running away. States are not left out. Some of them find it difficult to pay their workforce, and launch developmental projects. In the middle of recession, some states will be more affected than the others. A recent investigation by the Economic Confidential revealed that 15 States may go bankrupt as their Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) in 2015 were far below 10 per cent of their Federation Account Allocations (FAA) from June 2015 to May 2016.

The states that may not survive without the Federation Account due to poor internal revenue numbers up to 15. If they cannot survive the Federation Account, how will they cope in the time of recession. This list analyse the their bankruptcy level with their IGR, and how they won't stand well in this recession period

1. Yobe: Yobe generated meagre N2.2 billion, compared to a total of N57.4 billion it received from the Federation Account Allocation (FAA) from June 2015 to May 2016, representing about 3.9 per cent. Governor Ibrahim Gaidam's administration is faced with paucity of funds. He came into power with high expectations despite demoralising pains of insurgency that nearly pushed the state over the precipice. His task has not been made easy with lack of funds. It has not been easy on Yobe State with insurgency making it impossible to access revenues that should have been generated internally coupled with dwindling revenue from the federation account. How will the state cope while recession lasts?

2. Zamfara: Zamfara is among the states that may soon go bankrupt with IGR of N2.7 billion, compared to FAA of N56.6 billion representing 4.8 per cent. Governor Abdulaziz Yari has made giant strides in providing good road networks to the towns and rural areas especially the farming communities in the state. Hundreds of kilometres of roads were constructed linking many communities in the hinterlands. Residents of some villages and towns that never dreamt of having asphalted roads can now smile. Township roads projects are being carried out in all the 14 local government areas of the state. Yari also spent billions on the semi-urban water scheme and this is the first of its kind in the state. Yari prefers to lay emphasis on provision of infrastructure with available resources of the government.
In fact, Governor Yari has been applauded for completing most of the projects initiated by his predecessor, Shinkafi. These include the completion and equipping of the Yarima Bakura Specialist Hospital, State Ministry of Finance and court complexes in Gusau, the state capital. Other township road projects in Tsafe local government area, the dualisation of the road from Muslim Foundation to Birnin Ruwa area and the asphalting overlay of Sani Abacha way in Gusau, the state capital, among others have been completed.
These include: economic empowerment for women. During the campaign, Yari pledged that women in the state would be economically empowered by receiving N25,000. This promise, however, has not seen the light of the day with many women expressing indignation over the unfulfilled pledge.
Moreover, the governor is also at loggerheads with civil servants over non-implementation of minimum wage. Many workers are still expressing their disappointment over his administration’s failure to implement the much touted N18,000 minimum wage when other civil servants in other states are already being paid the wage. What does Goveror Yari expect the civil servants to live on in this period of recession?

3. Ekiti: The only South West state on the bankruptcy list with N3.2 billion IGR compared to FAA of N50.460 billion representing 6.5 per cent. Besides, Ekiti state, under Governor Ayodele Fayose has not launched any developmental programmes that may help his people in this period of recession.

4. Borno: With N3.5 billion IGR compared to N78.7 billion of FAA representing 4.5 per cent. Borno State has been in the news more that any other state in Nigeria for the wrong reasons. The state has been the hotbed of terrorism which has engulfed the North-eastern region of the country. Although, there has been some relative improvement but this cannot be celebrated. So far, the state is grappling with redevelopment of destroyed communities by the Boko Haram terrorist sects. The cost of Post Insurgency Recovery and Peace Building Assessment Report on Borno is put at $6 billion. 20,000 persons were killed, two million displaced, about one million houses, 665 Municipal buildings and 201 healthcare centres were destroyed. A total of 5,335 classrooms and other school buildings were destroyed across 512 primary schools, 38 secondary schools and two tertiary institutions. How more can a state be loaded with these problems? Let alone at a time of recession.

5. Nasarawa: Nasarawa has an IGR of N4.4 billion compared to FAA of N50.5 billion, representing 8.5 per cent. A year and some months into the second term of Governor Tanko Al-Makura in Nasarawa State, there are mixed feelings among residents and indigenes of the state on the development efforts of the state government. His administration is of a government with white-elephant projects. The state is faced with the challenge of unfavourable economic environment even with good economic prospects. Al-Makura’s most attention-seeking project in his second term so far has been the construction of a cargo airport in Lafia. The cargo airport, expected to gulp N17 billion, is being jointly financed by the state and a Chinese interest, Messrs Tongyi Engineering Nigerial Limited through its financial consultants, HYPAC Group. Will his white-elephant projects stand the test of recession?

6. Imo: Imo has an IGR of N5.4 billion, compared to FAA of N71.6 billion, representing 7.6 per cent. Things are not well in Imo state under Governor Rochas Okorocha. It's of a lousy governor chanting ÇHANGE, while things remain the same. He earned his second term due to the last minute emergence of Muhammadu Buhari as President-elect. He's has not done much expected from a second-term governor. He is busy widening and dualising roads in Owerri, the state's capital. Some parts of the state have been taken over by flood. His search for foreign investors that took him to Turkey twice with a 100-man strong delegation has so far failed to attract any foreign investment to the state.

7. Osun: Osun state has not been in good light of criticism lately. It has been of a second-term tenure of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who has to grapple with huge debt, non-payment of salaries, abandoned developmental projects in most parts of the state. The situations looks more scary for the residents of the state during this recession.


More to come soon...
 

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